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Gold price headed to $5,500 in the long term as central banks won't be able to exit unorthodox monetary policies

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Gold Price Headed to $5,500 in the Long Term

Gold last traded at $1,792 an ounce. Silver at $23.06 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices shot up Wednesday on safe-haven buying as rising inflation weakened the dollar. U.S. stocks churned as investors digested fresh inflation data and third-quarter earnings reports.

Kitco News--"In a report published Tuesday, investment bank Jefferies Group said that gold and Bitcoin remain essential hedges as the threat of stagflation - an environment of low growth and higher inflation - continues to grow.

Although the market continues to struggle in the near-term, analysts at Jefferies said that their long-term forecast remains in place for gold prices to push to $5,500 an ounce.

'This has been derived by comparing the January 1980 peak gold price of US$850/oz with the increase in US nominal personal disposable income per capita since then. The gold price was then equivalent to 9.9% of US disposable income per capita which was $8,547. The gold price is now $1,757/oz or 3.2% of US disposable income per capita of $54,671,' the analysts said.

The firm remains bullish on gold as central banks discover that it is easier to embark on unorthodox monetary policies than it is to exit them.

'The long-term view here remains the same as it has been for many years. That is that G7 central banks, including most importantly the Federal Reserve, will not be able to exit from unconventional monetary policy in a benign manner and will ultimately remain committed to ongoing central bank balance-sheet expansion in one form or another.'

'Such policies will increasingly discredit those central banks which have pursued unconventional monetary policy, threatening the stability and indeed integrity of the current fiat-paper-money system,' the analysts said."

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