This is when gold price reverses: Goehring & Rozencwajg on $15K gold

Gold last traded at $1,719 an ounce. Silver at $26.05 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying, rising inflation and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks rose after February consumer price index data was in line with expectations, easing investor worries about runaway inflation and interest rates.

KITCO--"Frustrated gold investors need to look at this specific metric when estimating a major price reversal in gold, according to Goehring & Rozencwajg managing partner Leigh Goehring....

It is not an easy task trying to pinpoint a trend reversal in gold, but it should happen at some point in the second half of this year, said Goehring. 'That is when the second leg of the bull market will start.'

The useful metric to look at when determining gold's price trends is the gold-oil ratio, Goehring highlighted. 'Over the last several years, gold has been trading expensive relative to oil. Gold will bottom when it becomes less expensive.'....

According to Goehring, inflation will be the catalyst to get gold back into its bullish mode, who described the current investment environment as 'a massive misallocation of capital flows.'

Inflation will be the trigger that undoes these new trends and shifts investors' attention back to gold, Goehring explained. 'Variety of economists out there are saying that inflation will not be a problem because we got too much debt. That belief is going to be unraveled by a black swan event that is perceived as being massively inflationary.'

The most likely shock to come is a global agricultural crisis, Goehring specified, noting that the grains market is in a huge boom right now....

Before the end of the current bull cycle, gold could reach $15,000 an ounce, and that is a conservative estimate, Goehring & Rozencwajg managing partner said.

'We still believe we will see a $15,000 gold price before this gold bull market is over. For patient investors with long-term horizons, we recommend aggressive accumulation of both gold and silver on any price weakness over the coming months,' he said."